If you observe something, there are many Telangana congress politicians talking against Jgun but there is no one who condemns it in Telangana region. You take Nalgonda, Nizamabad, Medak, Karimnagar almost everywhere.

Those who condemn on behalf of Jgun daily basis or useless who don't have any influence in public. (Gone, Ambati etc.,), In rayalaseema he got Mareppa and few others you can count.

 

What i can see is Jgun has more following in Coastal districts than in seema and telangana region. So, his impact in telangana is going to be Nil unless he buy over few second level leaders from telangana districts.

 

In districts like Nellore & Godavari districts he got some strong hold with money and muscle, and in certain areas of rayalaseema. Leaders like Vatti Vasantha Kumar, Sabbam Hari may like Jgun or support him but only until he remains in Congress, Once he is out all these leaders will keep distance from him and they will try to make sure they retain their people so that they won't get killed in the next elections.

 

If jgun exits, Congress will put a red carpet for chiru and so congress can count on some additional percentage of votes in andhra region. (some in that 18% may belongs to congress earlier). Though Jgun divides some votes it won't be at the level of damaging congress in most of the areas. There are families for generations who vote for 'Hand' irrespective of candidate. It's not so easy to change them. Wherever Jgun divides the votes in Andhra region, TDP will benefit. We may see many second level leaders follow jgun from various parties for the future MLA tickets, but not many present MLAs.

 

So, launching a new political party at this point of time is almost like committing suicide and become another Chiranjeevi. Congress high command will do all it can do to keep the MLAs in though jgun left. They may use money, power, blackmail or other benefits but they will keep them in some how. If jgun can offer money, Congress HC too can do that. Congress HC can give 4 more years of safety for their position which Jgun can't do.

 

I doubt even YSR's inner soul KVP will leave Congress if YS Jagan leaves.

 

 

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